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2016年12月12日 周仕勇(北京大学教授)——Designing Catastrophe Bonds for Earthquakes in China
2016-12-12 23:20   审核人:

Designing Catastrophe Bonds for Earthquakes in China

摘要:In this study,we design a catastrophe bond for earthquakes in Northern China. Our study contains three key steps: constructing the earthquake hazard model, building the corresponding loss model and designing the catastrophe bonds for earthquakes.

We select the earthquake datasets from China since 1970 and collect the corresponding focal mechanisms. After meshing the study region,with the Multidimensional Stress Release Model(MSRM), the space-time Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence(ETAS) model and the Poisson model,we can get three kinds of spatial variation conditional intensity function λ. In the meantime, using of Yujie Zheng’s codes can generate the spatial variation b-value. Having λ and b,we can get the Theoretical Earthquake Catalog in Northern China.

Secondly,we obtain a robust and reliable earthquake loss model. We establish the loss model with the loss datasets related to the population and magnitudes from China since 1970. To verify its reliability, we simulate 100 groups of loss datasets based on it and compare them with the actual loss datasets. After several times of simulation, comparison and calibration, an ideal model can be achieved.

In the future, our job is to accomplish the third step cooperating with the UCL, and constantly improve our model.

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